Impact of Legislated and Best Available Emission Control Measures on UK Particulate Matter Pollution, Premature Mortality, and Nitrogen-Sensitive Habitats

Abstract

Past emission controls in the UK have substantially reduced precursor emissions of health-hazardous fine particles (PM_2.5) and nitrogen pollution detrimental to ecosystems. Still, 79% of the UK exceeds the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline for annual mean PM_2.5 of 5 μg m⁻³ and there is no enforcement of controls on agricultural sources of ammonia (NH₃). NH₃ is a phytotoxin and an increasingly large contributor to PM_2.5 and nitrogen deposited to sensitive habitats. Here we use emissions projections, the GEOS-Chem model, high-resolution data sets, and contemporary exposure-risk relationships to assess potential human and ecosystem health co-benefits in 2030 relative to the present day of adopting legislated or best available emission control measures. We estimate that present-day annual adult premature mortality attributable to exposure to PM_2.5 is 48,625 (95% confidence interval: 45,188–52,595), that harmful amounts of reactive nitrogen deposit to almost all (95%) sensitive habitat areas, and that 75% of ambient NH₃ exceeds levels safe for bryophytes and lichens. Legal measures decrease the extent of the UK above the WHO guideline to 58% and avoid 6,800 premature deaths by 2030. This improves with best available measures to 36% of the UK and 13,300 avoided deaths. Both legal and best available measures are insufficient at reducing the extent of damage of nitrogen pollution to sensitive habitats. Far more ambitious reductions in nitrogen emissions (>80%) than is achievable with best available measures (34%) are required to halve the amount of excess nitrogen deposited to sensitive habitats.