Monetary policy and macroeconomic factors: Japan versus the US and the euro area

Pierre L. Siklos
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Abstract

Narratives that portray macroeconomic policies in Japan as unlike ones pursued in other large economies persist. I revisit how several factors, including monetary, fiscal, and demographic factors impact Japan, the US, and the euro area. Panel VARs driven by factors or observed macroeconomic determinants are used. Many, but not all, of the shocks examined have similar impact across all three economies considered. This is true for monetary policy and the response of global inflation to demographic shocks. The response of real economic activity to many of the shocks considered is also comparable. Fiscal and demographic factors, often omitted in studies of this kind, also significantly impact all three economies although the size of the response does differ across the economies examined. Japan may not be like other systemically important economies in all respects, but its experience is less idiosyncratic than usually portrayed.

货币政策和宏观经济因素:日本对美国和欧元区
将日本的宏观经济政策描述为与其他大型经济体不同的叙述仍然存在。我重新审视了包括货币、财政和人口因素在内的几个因素对日本、美国和欧元区的影响。使用由因素或观察到的宏观经济决定因素驱动的面板VAR。所研究的许多(但不是全部)冲击对所有三个经济体都有类似的影响。货币政策和全球通胀对人口冲击的反应也是如此。实际经济活动对所考虑的许多冲击的反应也具有可比性。这类研究中经常忽略的财政和人口因素也对所有三个经济体产生了重大影响,尽管所研究的经济体的反应规模确实不同。日本可能在各个方面都不像其他具有系统重要性的经济体,但其经验不像通常描述的那样独特。
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