MaxEnt-based prediction of the potential invasion of Lantana camara L. under climate change scenarios in Arunachal Pradesh, India

Abstract

Lantana camara L. is a weed of global importance due to its widespread distribution and far-reaching impact on ecosystems. In this study, we predicted the current niche suitability of the weed and its potential invasion using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model for two future climatic years 2050 and 2070 under three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) in Arunachal Pradesh, India. Out of the total 144 occurrence records and 22 environmental variables (19 bioclimatic and 3 topographic), 61 occurrence points and seven environmental variables were incorporated into the final model after removing biases, multicollinearity test, and contribution analysis. The model performed well with mean area under curve (AUC) = 0.864 to 0.882 and true skill statistic (TSS) = 0.738. The most contributing variables were the temperature of the wettest quarter, altitude, and precipitation of the warmest quarter. The results predicted a considerable range expansion of L. camara with an area of 14,331.95 km² (current to 2050 under RCP 4.5) to 25,560.55 km² (current to 2070 under RCP 8.5) towards the southern parts which are characterized by virgin tropical forests and cultivable areas. So, the findings would be helpful to the planners and managers in evolving appropriate strategies for containing the invasion of L. camara in the state.