Be careful what you wish for: Portfolio allocation, presidential popularity, and electoral payoffs to parties in multiparty presidentialism

IF 2.4 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE
Mariana Batista, Timothy J Power, Cesar Zucco
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

We know little about how coalitional strategy affects the electoral fates of political parties in presidential democracy. The literature on coalitions in parliamentary systems shows a negative impact of entering government, while the coattail effects literature on presidential systems suggests some benefits. Combining elements from both approaches, we argue that there is a conditional electoral effect of joining the cabinet under coalitional presidentialism. Even considering presidentialism’s heightened attribution of responsibility to a unipersonal executive, we find that coalition parties do indeed place a meaningful electoral wager whenever they choose to enter the president’s cabinet as identifiable allies. Leveraging data on Brazilian elections held at national and local levels over 24 years and employing an innovative measure of portfolio salience, we show that the payoff of this wager is contingent on control of the most highly-valued cabinet positions and on the popular approval of the president.
小心你的愿望:投资组合分配、总统受欢迎程度和多党总统制政党的选举回报
我们对联盟战略如何影响总统民主中政党的选举命运知之甚少。关于议会制度中的联盟的文献显示了进入政府的负面影响,而关于总统制度的长尾效应文献则表明了一些好处。结合这两种方法的要素,我们认为,在联合总统制下加入内阁具有有条件的选举效果。即使考虑到总统主义将责任高度归因于一位个人行政人员,我们也发现,无论何时联盟政党选择作为可识别的盟友进入总统内阁,他们都确实会在选举中下有意义的赌注。利用巴西24年来在国家和地方各级举行的选举的数据,并采用创新的投资组合显著性衡量标准,我们表明,这一赌注的回报取决于对最有价值的内阁职位的控制和总统的普遍认可。
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来源期刊
Party Politics
Party Politics POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
11.10%
发文量
137
期刊介绍: Political parties are intrinsic to every democratic political system, and with the dramatic changes that regularly sweep the political landscape, the study of their function and form is one of the most dynamic areas within contemporary scholarship. Party Politics is a peer-reviewed journal dedicated to the study of this integral component within political science. This major international journal provides a forum for the analysis of political parties, including their historical development, structure, policy programmes, ideology, electoral and campaign strategies, and their role within the various national and international political systems of which they are a part.
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