Rational erraticism

IF 0.6 4区社会学 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Journal of Theoretical Politics Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI:10.1177/09516298221081807

F. Bohn, Xue Wang

引用次数: 1

Abstract

Trump and Bolsonaro are perceived as erratic presidents, but they may actually be quite rational. We explore two channels of manipulation in a polarized society. One relates to swing voters and their perception of a president’s competence. The other one captures the effort by a president to appeal and mobilize her base voters. We model erraticism in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, but our model could also be applied to other realms of political manipulation. We find that erratic freedom propaganda directed against state-administered lockdowns may help a president in her re-election bid. Paradoxically, if the challenger gains popular support or increases voter mobilization against the president, it is optimal for the president to further increase erratic propaganda in order to increase the mobilization of her own supporters. Our predicted surge in voter mobilization is actually a main outcome of the 2020 US elections.

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理性的游侠主义

特朗普和博索纳罗被认为是反复无常的总统，但他们实际上可能相当理性。我们探讨了两极分化社会中的两种操纵渠道。其中一个与摇摆不定的选民以及他们对总统能力的看法有关。另一张照片捕捉到了总统为吸引和动员其基础选民所做的努力。我们为应对新冠肺炎大流行的失控行为建模，但我们的模型也可以应用于其他政治操纵领域。我们发现，针对国家管理的封锁的不稳定的自由宣传可能有助于总统竞选连任。矛盾的是，如果挑战者获得了民众支持或增加了反对总统的选民动员，总统最好进一步增加不稳定的宣传，以增加对自己支持者的动员。我们预测的选民动员激增实际上是2020年美国大选的主要结果。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Theoretical Politics POLITICAL SCIENCE-

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

10.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Theoretical Politics is an international journal one of whose principal aims is to foster the development of theory in the study of political processes. It provides a forum for the publication of original papers seeking to make genuinely theoretical contributions to the study of politics. The journal includes rigorous analytical articles on a range of theoretical topics. In particular, it focuses on new theoretical work which is broadly accessible to social scientists and contributes to our understanding of political processes. It also includes original syntheses of recent theoretical developments in diverse fields.