The Current State of, and Perspectives on, Foreign Trade Between the EU and Central Asia in a Period of Geoeconomic Change

IF 0.4 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Vestnik Mezhdunarodnykh Organizatsii-International Organisations Research Journal Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI:10.17323/1996-7845-2021-01-07

E. Kašťáková, M. Žatko, Natália Barinková

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The article examines the current foreign trade relations between the EU and Central Asia. Based on econometric analysis, it sets out possible perspectives for the further development of mutual trade relations in the time of geoeconomic changes. As one of the most important integration groupings in the world, the EU has a significant influence in promoting its foreign trade interests. Central Asia is a part of Asia consisting of several states that are members of different regional integration groupings with different priorities. The result of the research is an analysis of mutual foreign trade relations. Character and perspective of mutual trade relations is assessed by using of selected one-factor indicators (trade complementarity index and trade intensity index). With the help of time-series forecast model, the article also tries to estimate the future development of EU exports as well as EU imports in relation to Central Asian countries. While the EU imports from Central Asian countries are dominated by minerals and fuels in the long term, EU exports consist of more sophisticated and diversified production. This represents the potential for further development of the business relationships and growth of mutual trade. In the case of favourable circumstances, a continuing growth trend in trade can be expected, especially on the side on EU exports.

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地缘经济变化时期欧盟与中亚对外贸易的现状与展望

本文考察了当前欧盟与中亚地区的对外贸易关系。在计量经济学分析的基础上，提出了地缘经济变化时期双边贸易关系进一步发展的可能前景。欧盟作为世界上最重要的一体化集团之一，在促进其对外贸易利益方面具有重要的影响。中亚是亚洲的一部分，由几个国家组成，这些国家是不同区域一体化集团的成员，具有不同的优先事项。研究的结果是对双方对外贸易关系的分析。利用选定的单因素指标(贸易互补性指数和贸易强度指数)来评价双方贸易关系的特征和前景。借助时间序列预测模型，本文还试图对欧盟出口的未来发展以及欧盟对中亚国家的进口进行预测。从长期来看，欧盟从中亚国家的进口主要是矿物和燃料，而欧盟的出口则是更为复杂和多样化的产品。这代表了进一步发展业务关系和相互贸易增长的潜力。在有利的情况下，可以预期贸易的持续增长趋势，特别是在欧盟出口方面。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Vestnik Mezhdunarodnykh Organizatsii-International Organisations Research Journal INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-

CiteScore

1.30

自引率

33.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The journal mission is to disseminate Russian and international research in global governance, international cooperation on a wide range of social and economic policies; as well as to create a professional framework for discussion of trends and prognoses in these areas. International Organisations Research Journal publishes academic and analytical papers of Russian and international authors on activities of international multilateral institutions: G8, G20, BRICS, OECD, the World Bank, IMF, WTO, UN, and alliances: European Union, Eurasian Economic Union, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and others. Analytical and research papers on international cooperation in higher education, trends in higher education developments at the national, regional and global levels are welcomed for reviewing and publication. The journal is aimed at researchers, analysts, practitioners in international affairs and world economics and at a wide audience interested in political issues of international affairs and global development. IORJ supports publications of graduate and postgraduate students, young researchers in Russia and abroad. All IORJ publications are peer-reviewed.