Changes in the occupational structure of the labour market in Poland in 1995-2016

Abstract

Within last few years Polish labour market has undergone significant structural changes, where the main labour markets policy challenges moved from the problem of fighting unemployment to the problem of labour market shortages and the issue of increasing allocation effectiveness of labour force. This situation creates the need for building new and updating the existing quantitative diagnostic tools that can be useful for providing labour market policy guidelines. As a result, the main objective of the article is to conduct re-specification of the occupational model for major occupational groups with a high adjustment to empirical data and good statistical properties, which could be applied for forecasting purposes. To fulfil the aim of the article the causal model econometric model for major occupational groups in Poland in the years 1995-2016 was re-specified. From the forecasting perspective the obtained model is currently the most updated tool with respect to the occupational structure in Polish labour market, which in the same time is characterised with sufficient statistical quality. From the economic perspective the research confirms the process of modernisation of Polish economy and the structural changes that are conducive to the tendencies observed in the EU-27 countries.