Generalized ordered logit analysis on the injury severity of traffic crashes by older drivers: the case of South Korea

IF 2.9 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
T. Gim
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

ABSTRACT With a case of South Korea, this study attempts to analyze how the severity of traffic crashes for which older drivers are at fault is associated with road/environmental/seasonal/weather conditions, driver’s attributes, and crash/violation types. It analyzes the ordinal variable of injury severity by specifying conventionally used ordered logit and its statistical alternatives, multinomial logit, generalized ordered logit, partial proportional odds models. Based on the assumptions and fits of the models, this study finds that relative to the poor, but conventional ordered logit model, the best-fit generalized ordered logit model reports more accurate results in terms of the coefficient significance, direction, and magnitude. Among its major findings, although the severity decreases by year (conventional model), it does not apply to the minor injury level (alternative). The higher severity in the picnic season (conventional) is also limited to the level of minor injury or less. The times of the day at which the severity is higher (4–6) and lower (8–21) (conventional) are specific to fatal and serious injuries, respectively (alternative). Several variables have double-edged effects. Single-vehicle crashes do not always result in higher severity. They also reduce it to the lowest report-only level. Likewise, age and alcohol use change the severity to the most severe fatal level as well as to the most minor report-only level. These results are compared with the accumulated findings of crash frequency studies and interpreted in relation to older drivers’ high cautiousness and low physical/cognitive ability.
高龄驾驶员交通事故伤害程度的广义有序logit分析——以韩国为例
摘要以韩国为例,本研究试图分析老年驾驶员发生交通事故的严重程度与道路/环境/季节/天气条件、驾驶员特征和事故/违规类型之间的关系。它通过指定传统使用的有序logit及其统计替代品、多项式logit、广义有序logit、偏比例优势模型来分析损伤严重程度的顺序变量。基于模型的假设和拟合,本研究发现,与较差但传统的有序logit模型相比,最佳拟合的广义有序logit模式在系数显著性、方向和幅度方面报告了更准确的结果。在其主要发现中,尽管严重程度逐年下降(传统模型),但它不适用于轻伤水平(替代模型)。野餐季节(传统)的较高严重程度也仅限于轻伤或以下。一天中严重程度较高(4-6)和较低(8-21)的时间(常规)分别针对致命和严重伤害(可选)。有几个变量具有双刃剑效应。单车碰撞并不总是导致更高的严重程度。他们还将其降低到仅报告的最低级别。同样,年龄和饮酒会将严重程度改变为最严重的致命级别,也会改变为最轻微的仅报告级别。这些结果与碰撞频率研究的累积结果进行了比较,并与年长驾驶员的高度谨慎和低身体/认知能力有关。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.90
自引率
6.90%
发文量
36
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