Probing the Effect of Candidate Localness in Low-Information Elections: Evidence from the German Local Level

Abstract

Candidates with local ties perform better than their rivals without such attachments. We focus on the underlying mechanism of the localness effect and hypothesise that voters prefer local candidates for instrumental reasons, expecting better representation, and for reasons of a shared place identity. To test these expectations, we rely on the unusually detailed ballot for local elections in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia. Using multi-level regressions of the electoral results of 6503 candidates running in 21 cities in 2014, we confirm the importance of candidate localness for electoral success in low-information elections. Furthermore, we provide insights into the mechanisms behind this relationship. While instrumental motivations are independent of the composition of the electorate, a large share of elderly voters amplifies the identity effect, whereas many young voters, a high residential mobility, and a high population density diminishes this effect.