RASIO KEUANGAN DAN KEMUNGKINAN GAGAL BAYAR DENGAN METODE KMV MERTON PADA PERUSAHAAN NON KEUANGAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA [FINANCIAL RATIOS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DEFAULT USING THE KMV MERTON METHOD IN NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES ON THE INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE]

DeReMa Development Research of Management Jurnal Manajemen Pub Date : 2020-05-04 DOI:10.19166/derema.v15i1.1764

D. Malasari, Mohamad Adam, Yuliani Yuliani, A. Hanafi

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Abstract

The purpose of this research is to analyze the influence of financial ratios (Return on Equity, Current Ratio, Debt to Equity Ratio, Total Assets Turnover) in predicting the probability of default. The samples in this study were 22 companies. Data was collected using library study methods and documentation which were analyzed using the Eviews program. The results of the research obtained are as follows: (1) Return on Equity (ROE) affects negatively the probability of default, (2) Current Ratio (CR) does not affect the probability of default, (3) Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) affects positively the probability of default, (4) Total Assets Turnover (TAT) affects negatively the probability of default. Abstrak dalam Bahasa Indonesia Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh antara rasio keuangan (Return on Equity, Current Ratio, Debt to Equity Ratio, Total Assets Turnover) dalam memprediksi kemungkinan gagal bayar (probabilitas default). Jumlah sampel dalam penelitian ini adalah 22 perusahaan. Data dikumpulkan dengan menggunakan metode studi pustaka dan dokumentasi yang kemudian dianalisis menggunakan program Eviews. Hasil penelitian yang diperoleh adalah sebagai berikut: (1) Return on Equity (ROE) berpengaruh negatif terhadap kemungkinan gagal bayar, (2) Current Ratio (CR) tidak berpengaruh terhadap kemungkinan gagal bayar, (3) Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) berpengaruh positif terhadap kemungkinan gagal bayar (4) Total Assets Turnover (TAT) berpengaruh negatif terhadap kemungkinan gagal bayar

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BAYAR DENGAN METODE KMV MERTON PADA PERUSAHAAN NON KEUANGAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA失败和失败的原因[在印度尼西亚证券交易所使用KMV MERTON方法的非金融公司的财务比率和违约的可能性]

本研究的目的是分析财务比率（股本回报率、流动比率、负债权益比率、总资产周转率）对预测违约概率的影响。本研究的样本为22家公司。使用图书馆研究方法和文件收集数据，并使用Eviews程序进行分析。研究结果如下：（1）净资产收益率（ROE）对违约概率产生负面影响，（2）流动比率（CR）不影响违约概率，（3）负债权益比率（DER）对违约几率产生正面影响，（4）总资产周转率（TAT）对违约率产生负面影响。印尼文摘要本研究的样本数量为22家公司。使用图书馆研究方法和文件收集数据，然后使用Eviews程序进行分析。研究结果如下：（1）净资产收益率（ROE）对违约可能性有负面影响，（2）流动比率（CR）对违约的可能性没有影响，（3）负债权益比率（DER）对违约概率有正面影响，（4）总资产周转率（TAT）对违约可能有负面影响。

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DeReMa Development Research of Management Jurnal Manajemen

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