The Heuristic of Representativeness and Overconfidence Bias in Entrepreneurs

Q3 Business, Management and Accounting

Latin American Business Review Pub Date : 2019-09-10 DOI:10.1080/10978526.2019.1656536

Natália C. Dias, M. Avila, C. Campani, Flávia Schwartz Maranho

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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Abstract This study investigated the existence of the representativeness heuristic and the manifestation of overconfidence in entrepreneurs. The use of representativeness and the manifestation of overconfidence were measured with an online questionnaire answered by 62 entrepreneurs; the results were compared to a control group of 63 business managers. The respondents were randomly chosen from the business network of a business incubator at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. The data were analyzed with statistical tests and their respective confidence curves. The results of the research indicate that entrepreneurs and business managers demonstrate representativeness and overconfidence in their judgment processes. No significant differences were identified, but the evidence was somewhat stronger in the group of entrepreneurs. The results of this study prompt reflections on the use of heuristics and biases in the judgment and decision-making processes regarding business creation and management. More specifically, angel investors and venture capitalists who consider the results of this research in their business models may improve their rates of success.

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企业家代表性与过度自信偏见的启发式

摘要本研究考察了企业家中代表性启发式的存在及其过度自信的表现。通过62位企业家回答的在线调查问卷来衡量代表性的使用和过度自信的表现;研究结果与63名企业经理组成的对照组进行了比较。受访者是从里约热内卢联邦大学的一个企业孵化器的商业网络中随机选择的。用统计检验和各自的置信曲线对数据进行分析。研究结果表明，企业家和企业管理者在判断过程中表现出代表性和过度自信。没有发现显著的差异，但在企业家群体中，证据更强一些。这项研究的结果促使人们反思在商业创造和管理的判断和决策过程中使用启发式和偏见。更具体地说，天使投资人和风险资本家在他们的商业模式中考虑这项研究的结果可能会提高他们的成功率。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Latin American Business Review Business, Management and Accounting-Business and International Management

CiteScore

2.40

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Latin American Business Review is a quarterly, refereed journal which facilitates the exchange of information and new ideas between academics, business practitioners, public policymakers, and those in the international development community. Special features of the journal will keep you current on various teaching, research, and information sources. These activities all focus on the business and economic environment of the diverse and dynamic countries of the Americas.