Analysis of the Contributory Factors to Accidents at Signalized Intersections using Generalized Estimating Equation with Negative Binomial Distribution

N. Hussein, Rayya Hassan
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Abstract

Ensuring safety on roadways and controlling conflicting and merging streams of traffic at signalized intersections has become a major concern for transportation engineers and road users globally and locally. Many factors contribute to accident occurrence at road segments and intersections with driver behavior being the main contributor. Other factors include those related to the road and the vehicle. The primary aim of this study is to understand the impact of different factors causing traffic accidents at signalized intersections. It also include developing a descriptive study of traffic accident data to show the variation with different factors at both locations (intersections and roadway segments). To achieve this objectives, 22 signalized intersections and all roadways in Duhok city/Iraq were selected. Assessing the impacts of geometric characteristics and driver behavior on safety performance of the sites have been achieved through observations of trends from graphs and use of appropriate advanced statistical analysis such as Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) with NB distribution and log link function. The results show that approach width, driver inattention, red light running and surface moisture condition are the significant contributor factors to accident occurrence. The study results highlight the importance of driver education, police enforcement and appropriate geometric design of intersections to the reduction of accident occurrence.
基于负二项分布广义估计方程的信号交叉口事故成因分析
确保道路安全并控制信号交叉口的冲突和合并交通流已成为全球和当地交通工程师和道路使用者关注的主要问题。在道路路段和十字路口发生交通事故的原因很多,其中驾驶员行为是主要原因。其他因素包括与道路和车辆有关的因素。本研究的主要目的是了解不同因素对信号交叉口交通事故的影响。它还包括对交通事故数据进行描述性研究,以显示两个地点(十字路口和道路段)不同因素的变化。为了实现这一目标,选择了伊拉克杜霍克市的22个信号交叉路口和所有道路。通过观察图表趋势和使用适当的高级统计分析(如具有NB分布和日志链接函数的广义估计方程(GEE)),可以评估几何特征和驾驶员行为对站点安全性能的影响。结果表明,车道宽度、驾驶员注意力不集中、闯红灯和路面湿度状况是影响事故发生的重要因素。研究结果强调了驾驶员教育,警察执法和适当的十字路口几何设计对减少事故发生的重要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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8 weeks
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