Mapping the Future of Occupations: Transformative and Destructive Effects of New Digital Technologies on Jobs

IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS

Foresight and STI Governance Pub Date : 2019-06-25 DOI:10.17323/2500-2597.2019.2.10.18

Frenk Fossen, Alina Sorgner

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引用次数: 51

Abstract

We investigate the impact of new digital technologies upon occupations. We argue that these impacts may be both destructive and transformative. The destructive effects of digitalization substitute human labor, while transformative effects of digitalization complement it. We distinguish between four broad groups of occupations that differ with regard to the impact of digitalization upon them. “Rising star” occupations are characterized by the low destructive and high transformative effects of digitalization. In contrast, “collapsing” occupations face a high risk of destructive effects. “Human terrain” occupations have low risks of both destructive and transformative digitalization, whereas “machine terrain” occupations are affected by both types. We analyze the differences between these four occupational groups in terms of the capabilities, which can be considered bottlenecks to computerization. The results help to identify which capabilities will be in demand and to what degree workers with different abilities can expect their occupations to be transformed in the digital era.

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规划职业的未来：新数字技术对就业的变革和破坏性影响

我们调查了新的数字技术对职业的影响。我们认为，这些影响可能既是破坏性的，也是变革性的。数字化带来的破坏性影响替代了人类劳动，而数字化带来的变革效应则是对人类劳动的补充。我们区分了四大类职业，这些职业在数字化对他们的影响方面有所不同。“明日之星”职业的特点是数字化的破坏性低，变革性强。相比之下，“崩溃”的职业面临着破坏性影响的高风险。“人类地形”职业受到破坏性和变革性数字化的风险较低，而“机器地形”职业则受到这两种类型的影响。我们分析了这四个职业群体在能力方面的差异，这些能力可以被认为是计算机化的瓶颈。这些结果有助于确定哪些能力是需要的，以及拥有不同能力的工人在数字时代的职业转型程度。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Foresight and STI Governance Multiple-

CiteScore

3.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

25 weeks

期刊介绍： Foresight and STI Governance is an international interdisciplinary peer-reviewed open-access journal. It publishes original research articles, offering new theoretical insights and practical knowledge related to the following areas: strategic planning, science, technology, and innovation (STI) policy, foresight and other future studies. The journal considers articles on the following themes: - Foresight methods and best practices; - Long-term social and economic priorities for strategic planning and policy making; - Innovation strategies at the national, regional, sectoral, and corporate levels; - The development of National Innovation Systems; - The analysis of the innovation lifecycle from idea to the market; - Technological trends, breakthroughs, and grand challenges; - Technological changes and their implications for economy, policy-making, and society; - Corporate innovation management; - Human capital in STI.