Logistics Sector Turnover: Forecasting for Turkey, EU27 and EA19 under Effects of COVID-19

Abstract

Background: The logistics sector is the backbone of today’s global trade, and is vital for the continuity of goods and services. The sector is gaining increased importance as logistics operate under the extreme conditions the world is passing through (COVID-19, earthquakes, wars). Methods: A comparative study is offered for Turkey and the EU27 and EA19 countries utilizing Eurostat database time series data for logistics turnover, based on regression analysis with and without COVID-19-affected data. General trends are identified regarding the logistics turnover and average turnover by different transportation modes in Turkey. Linear, exponential, logarithmic and polynomial regressions are fitted to the dataset to find the best fit. Afterwards, forecasting is performed based on the polynomial equation, which is identified as the best fit. A similar approach is repeated for the EU27 and EA19 countries to put forward the trends and forecasts as well as a detailed comparative discussion among countries. Results: Our study reveals the dramatic effect of COVID-19 on the turnover of different logistics modes and the radical shift that Turkey experienced from land transportation towards air transportation. Conclusions: Our study provides forecasting and a comparative picture for the logistics sector, shows the growth trends with respect to different transportation modes and reveals the effects of the pandemic on the logistics sector for Turkey and the EU27 and EA19 countries.