{"title":"Future scenarios for the European railway sector: A methodology based on past trends and a stated preference survey","authors":"Rubén Cordera , Roberto Sañudo , Eneko Echániz , Soledad Nogués , Luigi dell’Olio","doi":"10.1080/15568318.2021.1999540","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The strengthening of the railway mode is one of the main policies that can help to achieve more sustainable future mobility. A methodology is presented to estimate future transport demand scenarios over the medium (2030) and long term (2050) considering three trip lengths: urban, regional, and long distance for two trip purposes: work and leisure. The objective of the scenarios is to answer the question: would railways benefit from a 10% drop in car usage? Qualitative techniques have been applied, based on in-depth interviews and focus groups, as well as a stated preference survey where the people sampled answered to different scenarios which included the presence of a new train, with a high level of service, and other possible new modes of transport such as autonomous cars and buses. The results obtained using Best-Worst discrete choice models show that the rail mode could capture a significant part of the demand from the car over all three journey lengths, but especially for long distance, if the new rail mode were introduced.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47824,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Sustainable Transportation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Sustainable Transportation","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/org/science/article/pii/S1556831822000983","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
The strengthening of the railway mode is one of the main policies that can help to achieve more sustainable future mobility. A methodology is presented to estimate future transport demand scenarios over the medium (2030) and long term (2050) considering three trip lengths: urban, regional, and long distance for two trip purposes: work and leisure. The objective of the scenarios is to answer the question: would railways benefit from a 10% drop in car usage? Qualitative techniques have been applied, based on in-depth interviews and focus groups, as well as a stated preference survey where the people sampled answered to different scenarios which included the presence of a new train, with a high level of service, and other possible new modes of transport such as autonomous cars and buses. The results obtained using Best-Worst discrete choice models show that the rail mode could capture a significant part of the demand from the car over all three journey lengths, but especially for long distance, if the new rail mode were introduced.
期刊介绍：
The International Journal of Sustainable Transportation provides a discussion forum for the exchange of new and innovative ideas on sustainable transportation research in the context of environmental, economical, social, and engineering aspects, as well as current and future interactions of transportation systems and other urban subsystems. The scope includes the examination of overall sustainability of any transportation system, including its infrastructure, vehicle, operation, and maintenance; the integration of social science disciplines, engineering, and information technology with transportation; the understanding of the comparative aspects of different transportation systems from a global perspective; qualitative and quantitative transportation studies; and case studies, surveys, and expository papers in an international or local context. Equal emphasis is placed on the problems of sustainable transportation that are associated with passenger and freight transportation modes in both industrialized and non-industrialized areas. All submitted manuscripts are subject to initial evaluation by the Editors and, if found suitable for further consideration, to peer review by independent, anonymous expert reviewers. All peer review is single-blind. Submissions are made online via ScholarOne Manuscripts.
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