A retrospective and prospective view of current and future population ageing in the European Union 28 countries

IF 1.8 2区社会学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY

Moravian Geographical Reports Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI:10.2478/mgr-2020-0014

L. Šídlo, B. Šprocha, Pavol Ďurček

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引用次数: 11

Abstract

Abstract Population ageing in the EU28 is an important twenty-first century phenomenon, affecting virtually every aspect of life in these countries. The results of the latest EUROPOP2018 population forecast indicate that the rate of ageing is accelerating. The aim of this paper is to analyse the current level of population ageing in the EU28, identify spatial differences, and point to likely trends by the middle of this century. For these purposes, we have used a combination of conventional chronological indicators of population ageing and a set of new indicators based on prospective age that allows for a more comprehensive and realistic view of population ageing. We use multivariate statistical methods (factor and cluster analysis) to identify groups of countries with similar population ageing characteristics, using both a retrospective and prospective approach. We decompose changes in selected ageing indicators into the separate effects of changes in the population composition (children under 15, working-age population, elderly). We then identify the effect of major demographic factors (migration, mortality, cohort turnover) for the set of EU28 countries

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欧洲联盟28个国家当前和未来人口老龄化的回顾和前瞻

欧盟28国的人口老龄化是21世纪的一个重要现象，几乎影响到这些国家生活的方方面面。最新的2018年欧洲人口预测结果表明，老龄化速度正在加快。本文的目的是分析欧盟28国目前的人口老龄化水平，确定空间差异，并指出到本世纪中叶可能的趋势。为此，我们结合使用传统的人口老化时间指标和一套基于预期年龄的新指标，以便对人口老化有一个更全面和现实的看法。我们使用多变量统计方法(因素和聚类分析)来确定具有相似人口老龄化特征的国家群体，采用回顾性和前瞻性方法。我们将选定的老龄化指标的变化分解为人口构成(15岁以下儿童、工作年龄人口、老年人)变化的单独影响。然后，我们确定了欧盟28个国家的主要人口因素(移民、死亡率、队列更替)的影响

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来源期刊

Moravian Geographical Reports GEOGRAPHY-

CiteScore

4.10

自引率

4.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Moravian Geographical Reports je mezinárodní časopis, publikovaný v anglickém jazyce od roku 1993 Ústavem geoniky Akademie věd ČR. Publikuje příspěvky geografů a odborníků příbuzných disciplin včetně geověd a geoekologie, které mají výraznou regionální orientaci. Základní otázku, před níž stojí v současné době tito odborníci, lze položit následovně: „Jaká je úloha regionů a lokalit v globalizované společnosti, daném geografickém měřítku a jak ji můžeme hodnotit?“