What drives pension reforms in the OECD?

IF 0.4 Q4 ECONOMICS
R. Beetsma, F. Klaassen, W. Romp, R. V. Maurik
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引用次数: 8

Abstract

Based on narrative identification, we construct a novel comprehensive dataset of pension reform measures in OECD countries from 1970 to 2017. We then study the timing of these measures. Our main and new result is that business cycle indicators are important for their timing: a worsening makes contractionary measures more likely and expansionary measures less likely. The demography matters only in the sense that the OECD-wide demography explains the general reform trend for a country. We find no evidence that country-specific or short-run demographic developments matter. We discuss a conceptual framework with adjustment costs of changing pension generosity that can account for both the reform responsiveness to the business cycle and the lack of responsiveness to changes in demographic forecasts. We also discuss potential policy implications of our findings.
是什么推动了经合组织的养老金改革?
在叙事识别的基础上,我们构建了一个新颖的综合数据集,涵盖1970年至2017年经合组织国家的养老金改革措施。然后我们研究这些措施的时机。我们最新的主要结论是,商业周期指标在时机上很重要:经济恶化更有可能采取紧缩措施,而扩张性措施的可能性更小。只有在经合组织范围内的人口统计能够解释一个国家的总体改革趋势时,人口统计才有意义。我们没有发现任何证据表明具体国家或短期的人口发展很重要。我们讨论了一个概念框架,其中包含养老金慷慨度变化的调整成本,该框架可以解释改革对商业周期的响应性和对人口预测变化的缺乏响应性。我们还讨论了研究结果的潜在政策含义。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
20.00%
发文量
0
期刊介绍: Ekonomicheskaya Politika is a broad-range economic journal devoted primarily to the study of the economic policy of present-day Russia as well as global economic problems. The subject matters of articles includes macroeconomic, fiscal, monetary, industrial, social, regulation and competition policyand more. The journal also publishes theoretical papers in such areas as political economy, general economic theory, welfare economics, law and economics,and institutional economics.. The character and the scope of economic problems studied in many publications require a multidisciplinary approach, consistent with the editorial policy of the journal. While the thematic scope of articles is generally related to Russia, the aim of editorial policy is to cover politico-economic processes in the modern world and international economic relations, as well. In addition, Ekonomicheskaya Politika publishes Russian translations of classical and significant modern works of foreign economists.
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