Adaptability and variety adoption: Implications for plant breeding policy in a changing climate

Abstract

Adaptability of a seed variety to a wide range of environmental conditions is important in farmers' variety adoption decisions, especially with the increased environmental volatility induced by climate change. Despite the apparent need for information, variety trial reports generally report average relative yields, but they do not provide farmers with measures of variety adaptability. Our theoretical model postulates that the adaptability of seed varieties matters in farmers' variety adoption choices. To test this conjecture, and to measure the magnitude of the effect, we develop a new measure of variety adaptability and estimate an empirical model of adoption in Western Canada. We find that a 1% increase in the adaptability of a variety will increase its adoption by 0.45%. This effect is statistically and economically significant. Our results imply that adding a measure of variety adaptability to crop variety guides could enhance the adoption of superior crop varieties, benefiting both farmers and breeders.