Priority analysis of port investment along the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road region: the case of Southeast Asia

IF 3.7 3区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Maritime Policy & Management Pub Date : 2021-06-08 DOI:10.1080/03088839.2021.1937741

Jia-Wen Zheng, Lingxiao Yang, Wei Li, Xiaowen Fu, Daqing Li

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引用次数: 5

Abstract

ABSTRACT Most of the Southeast Asian countries are developing economies that have large demand for maritime infrastructures. Some but not all the ports in this region could significantly benefit from and contribute to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by the Chinese government. This paper models the port investment priority in the Southeast Asian region, so that efficient and sustainable investments can be made under the BRI. Based on the link prediction theory, a random walk method is proposed to assess the priorities of port construction projects at different sites. The proposed method explicitly considers important economic and political factors, especially those linking Southeast Asian countries with China. Our model is calibrated and verified with numerical experiments, so that policy and managerial recommendations can be obtained for this region. Results consistent with industry reality also provide supports to the validity of the model. This study introduces a new dimension of investment planning for multiple ports taking into account the resultant impacts on shipping networks, and recommends selected port construction sites with good potential in Southeast Asia.

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21世纪海上丝绸之路沿线港口投资优先级分析——以东南亚为例

摘要大多数东南亚国家都是发展中经济体，对海洋基础设施有着巨大的需求。该地区的一些港口（但并非所有港口）可以从中国政府提出的“一带一路”倡议中受益匪浅，并为其做出贡献。本文对东南亚地区的港口投资优先级进行了建模，以便在“一带一路”倡议下进行高效和可持续的投资。基于链路预测理论，提出了一种随机游走法来评估不同地点港口建设项目的优先级。所提出的方法明确考虑了重要的经济和政治因素，特别是那些将东南亚国家与中国联系起来的因素。我们的模型通过数值实验进行了校准和验证，从而可以获得该地区的政策和管理建议。符合行业实际的结果也为模型的有效性提供了支持。本研究引入了多个港口投资规划的新维度，考虑到由此对航运网络的影响，并建议在东南亚选择具有良好潜力的港口建设地点。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Maritime Policy & Management TRANSPORTATION-

CiteScore

8.20

自引率

8.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： Thirty years ago maritime management decisions were taken on the basis of experience and hunch. Today, the experience is augmented by expert analysis and informed by research findings. Maritime Policy & Management provides the latest findings and analyses, and the opportunity for exchanging views through its Comment Section. A multi-disciplinary and international refereed journal, it brings together papers on the different topics that concern the maritime industry. Emphasis is placed on business, organizational, economic, sociolegal and management topics at port, community, shipping company and shipboard levels. The Journal also provides details of conferences and book reviews.