SIMULATION OF DELAYED BUSES IN A DUMPLING STATE AND ANALYSIS OF MAXIMUM WAITING TIME USING LOGISTIC REGRESSION

Abstract

As cities become larger and societies become more complicated, the corresponding transportation systems also become more complicated. Thus far, many important transportation models have been investigated and applied to societies. In this work, we analyze a bus transportation model that includes high randomness. By strengthening the viewpoint of the users, the bunching of buses is further explored and considered as “the dumpling bus state,” referring to cases when the next scheduled buses closely run behind a delayed bus for a while. It is described that waiting people are split into winners (people with shorter waiting times) and losers (people with longer waiting times). Waiting time is also analyzed using logistic regression to obtain the probability of people who continue to wait.