Impact of rising temperatures on the biomass of humid old-growth forests of the world

IF 3.9 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Carbon Balance and Management Pub Date : 2021-10-12 DOI:10.1186/s13021-021-00194-3

Markku Larjavaara, Xiancheng Lu, Xia Chen, Mikko Vastaranta

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Abstract

Background

Understanding how warming influence above-ground biomass in the world’s forests is necessary for quantifying future global carbon budgets. A climate-driven decrease in future carbon stocks could dangerously strengthen climate change. Empirical methods for studying the temperature response of forests have important limitations, and modelling is needed to provide another perspective. Here we evaluate the impact of rising air temperature on the future above-ground biomass of old-growth forests using a model that explains well the observed current variation in the above-ground biomass over the humid lowland areas of the world based on monthly air temperature.

Results

Applying this model to the monthly air temperature data for 1970–2000 and monthly air temperature projections for 2081–2100, we found that the above-ground biomass of old-growth forests is expected to decrease everywhere in the humid lowland areas except boreal regions. The temperature-driven decrease is estimated at 41% in the tropics and at 29% globally.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that rising temperatures impact the above-ground biomass of old-growth forests dramatically. However, this impact could be mitigated by fertilization effects of increasing carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and nitrogen deposition.

Abstract Image

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气温上升对世界潮湿老林生物量的影响。

背景：要量化未来的全球碳预算，就必须了解气候变暖如何影响全球森林的地上生物量。气候导致的未来碳储量减少可能会加剧气候变化。研究森林温度响应的经验方法有很大的局限性，因此需要建模来提供另一种视角。在这里，我们使用一个模型来评估气温上升对未来古老森林地上生物量的影响，该模型可以很好地解释目前根据月气温观测到的世界湿润低地地区地上生物量的变化：将该模型应用于 1970-2000 年的月气温数据和 2081-2100 年的月气温预测数据，我们发现，除北方地区外，湿润低地地区所有地方的古老森林地上生物量都将减少。据估计，温度导致热带地区生物量减少 41%，全球减少 29%：我们的研究结果表明，气温升高会对古老森林的地上生物量产生巨大影响。然而，大气中二氧化碳浓度的增加和氮沉降的施肥效应可以减轻这种影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Carbon Balance and Management Environmental Science-Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

CiteScore

7.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

14 weeks

期刊介绍： Carbon Balance and Management is an open access, peer-reviewed online journal that encompasses all aspects of research aimed at developing a comprehensive policy relevant to the understanding of the global carbon cycle. The global carbon cycle involves important couplings between climate, atmospheric CO2 and the terrestrial and oceanic biospheres. The current transformation of the carbon cycle due to changes in climate and atmospheric composition is widely recognized as potentially dangerous for the biosphere and for the well-being of humankind, and therefore monitoring, understanding and predicting the evolution of the carbon cycle in the context of the whole biosphere (both terrestrial and marine) is a challenge to the scientific community. This demands interdisciplinary research and new approaches for studying geographical and temporal distributions of carbon pools and fluxes, control and feedback mechanisms of the carbon-climate system, points of intervention and windows of opportunity for managing the carbon-climate-human system. Carbon Balance and Management is a medium for researchers in the field to convey the results of their research across disciplinary boundaries. Through this dissemination of research, the journal aims to support the work of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) and to provide governmental and non-governmental organizations with instantaneous access to continually emerging knowledge, including paradigm shifts and consensual views.