[Risk Assessment for Malaria Transmission in the Border Area of Yunnan Province].

Abstract

Objective: To assess the malaria transmission risk in the border area of Yunnan Province and provide evidence for adjustment of malaria intervention and elimination strategies.

Method: Data concerning malaria prevalence, vector distribution, and institutional intervention capacity were collected in 197 towns of 20 counties in the border area of Yunnan Province during 2012-2014. The malaria transmission potential index （TPI）, intervention capacity index (ICI) and malaria risk index (MRI) were calculated for each town, based on the criteria formulated by a professional committee. The towns were categorized according to the indices aforementioned. The risk map was created with GIS software.

Results: Based on the TPI, the 197 towns comprised of 2 grade-I towns (including Nabang in Yingjiang and Banlao in Cangyuan) with high transmission potential, 11 grade-II towns with moderate transmission potential and 184 grade-III towns with low transmission potential. Based on the ICI, the 197 towns comprised of 4 grade-III towns (including Zhongke in Ximen, Zhonghe and Diantan in Tengchong, and Menghan in Jinghong) with a weak control capacity, 20 grade-II towns with a moderate control capacity and 173 grade-I towns with a strong control capacity. Based on the MRI, the 197 towns comprised of 2 grade-I towns (including Nabang in Yingjiang, and Banlao in Cangyuan) with a high transmission risk level, 12 grade-II towns with a moderate level and 183 grade-III towns with a low level distributed in 20 counties.

Conclusion: The grade I or II towns with moderate and high transmission risk constitute <5% of the 197 towns in the border area, suggesting a relatively low level of malaria transmission risk in most counties.