Mortality surveillance system: models from the second year.

Abstract

This is the second report presenting statistical charts and text from the Mortality Surveillance System (MSS). The first report presented the statistical charts and text from the first year of the MSS as published in the Monthly Vital Statistics Report (MVSR) volume 38, numbers 2-volume 39, number 1, and briefly described the methodology that was used. This report presents the statistical charts and text from the second year of the MSS as published in the MVSR volume 39, number 2-volume 40, number 1. Also presented are the monthly data used in fitting the models depicted in the published charts and the model statistics for the fitted curves. According to the Dictionary of Epdenriology edited by John Last (2) surveillance is "Ongoing scrutiny, generally using methods distinguished by their practicability, uniformity, and frequently their rapidity, rather than by complete accuracy. Its main purpose is to detect changes in trend or distribution in order to initiate investigative or control measures." Conceptually, then, the purpose of the MSS is to detect changes in trend or distribution to initiate further investigative and control measures in a practical and timely manner.