[The epidemic process in infections before and after active immunization. II. Changes in the number of susceptible individuals in the population during a natural epidemic and its control by active immunization].

Abstract

Based on the long-term follow-up of the incidence of some infectious diseases in the district and calculations of the actual number of infected subjects, the authors present an estimate of the ratio of susceptible and immune subjects during the unimpaired epidemic process. The epidemic process develops from the lowest range of immune subjects and stops at the highest range. The highest range thus gives the ratio of immune subjects which must be achieved or maintained by active immunization to achieve elimination of a given infection. The authors demonstrate on the model infection the mechanism by which after immunization the shift of infections to higher age groups occurs, and during introduction of the infection not only contact infections occur, but epidemic incidence develops. The restoration of some infections after years of elimination is to a restricted extent a natural phenomenon and does not imply failure of active immunization.