Tourism- versus non-tourism-led growth: Which is superior?

IF 10.4 1区管理学 Q1 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM

Annals of Tourism Research Pub Date : 2025-07-24 DOI:10.1016/j.annals.2025.104000

Anda Nugroho , George Verikios

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study reveals the underlying mechanism by which tourism expansion drives long-term economic growth and compares it to non-tourism-led growth. We perform long-run simulations (up to 30 years) using a general equilibrium model with dynamic macroeconomic properties that considers the economy's transition between steady states on a balanced growth path. We find that whether or not tourism can drive growth depends on its relative capital intensity compared to the rest of the economy. In our case, the expansion of tourism alters sectoral rates of return, leading to inter-sectoral shifts that encourage a higher capital stock. As output per worker increases, the economy becomes more productive. In the absence of mining, tourism is among the leading drivers of growth.

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旅游业与非旅游业的增长：哪个更好？

本研究揭示了旅游扩张驱动长期经济增长的潜在机制，并将其与非旅游驱动的经济增长进行了比较。我们使用具有动态宏观经济属性的一般均衡模型进行长期模拟（长达30年），该模型考虑了经济在平衡增长路径上的稳定状态之间的过渡。我们发现，旅游业能否推动经济增长取决于其相对于其他经济领域的资本密集度。在我们的例子中，旅游业的扩张改变了部门的回报率，导致部门间的转移，从而鼓励更高的资本存量。随着人均产出的增加，经济变得更有生产力。在没有采矿业的情况下，旅游业是经济增长的主要推动力之一。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Annals of Tourism Research Multiple-

CiteScore

19.10

自引率

9.10%

发文量

135

审稿时长

42 days

期刊介绍： The Annals of Tourism Research is a scholarly journal that focuses on academic perspectives related to tourism. The journal defines tourism as a global economic activity that involves travel behavior, management and marketing activities of service industries catering to consumer demand, the effects of tourism on communities, and policy and governance at local, national, and international levels. While the journal aims to strike a balance between theory and application, its primary focus is on developing theoretical constructs that bridge the gap between business and the social and behavioral sciences. The disciplinary areas covered in the journal include, but are not limited to, service industries management, marketing science, consumer marketing, decision-making and behavior, business ethics, economics and forecasting, environment, geography and development, education and knowledge development, political science and administration, consumer-focused psychology, and anthropology and sociology.