Crop productivity in southern Africa is stagnant despite moderate climate trends

Abstract

Southern Africa faces high food insecurity and projected declines in agroclimatic conditions. Multiple satellite measures indicate that cropland productivity has stagnated for most of the region except South Africa in the past 20 years, in contrast to what official crop statistics suggest. Climate trends do not explain this stagnation, with the region experiencing more rainfall and less warming than most climate model projections. A change of course is needed before climate impacts accelerate. Understanding recent trends in agricultural productivity and climate can inform mitigation and adaptation strategies. Based on satellite imagery, this study shows that yields have stagnated in much of southern Africa despite moderate climate trends over the past 20 years.