Alzheimer's disease and dementia in Japan: Epidemiological trends, regional disparities, and future projections

IF 13 1区医学 Q1 CLINICAL NEUROLOGY

Alzheimer's & Dementia Pub Date : 2025-07-09 DOI:10.1002/alz.70444

Deepak Kumar Behera, Dil B. Rahut, Snehasish Tripathy

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

INTRODUCTION

Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (ADOD) are a growing public health concern in Japan. This study examines historical ADOD burden trends, identifies contributing risk factors, and forecasts future projections using time-series modeling.

METHODS

This study uses the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021 data to analyze ADOD trends in Japan, and assess incidence, mortality, and Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Regression analysis identifies risk factors, and an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is employed to forecasts the burden from 2021 to 2030.

RESULTS

ADOD cases have steadily increased, with projections indicating continued growth by 2030. Aging and life expectancy are major contributors, with urban areas like Kantō and Kansai region experiencing higher prevalence than Tōhoku and Kyūshū. High fasting plasma glucose, obesity, and smoking are significant modifiable risk factors. The ARIMA model forecasts an ongoing upward trend, highlighting a rising public health challenge.

DISCUSSION

Targeted policies, early interventions, and equitable health care access are vital to mitigating Japan's growing ADOD burden.

Highlights

Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (ADOD) are rising in Japan due to an aging population.
Key risk factors include high fasting plasma glucose, obesity, and smoking.
Kantō and Kansai region have higher ADOD prevalence than other region
ARIMA modeling predicts a continuous increase in ADOD cases through 2030.
Targeted health care policies and preventive measures are crucial to mitigate the burden.

Abstract Image

查看原文本刊更多论文

日本阿尔茨海默病和痴呆症：流行病学趋势、地区差异和未来预测

在日本，阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆症（ADOD）是一个日益严重的公共卫生问题。本研究考察了历史上的adhd负担趋势，确定了有影响的风险因素，并使用时间序列模型预测了未来的预测。方法：本研究使用2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）研究数据来分析日本的adhd趋势，并评估发病率、死亡率和残疾调整生命年（DALYs）。回归分析识别风险因素，采用自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型对2021 - 2030年的负担进行预测。结果：adhd病例稳步增长，预计到2030年将继续增长。老龄化和预期寿命是主要因素，关西和关西地区等城市地区的患病率高于Tōhoku和Kyūshū。空腹血糖高、肥胖和吸烟是可改变的重要危险因素。ARIMA模型预测了持续上升的趋势，突出了日益严峻的公共卫生挑战。有针对性的政策、早期干预和公平的医疗保健获取对于减轻日本日益增长的adhd负担至关重要。由于人口老龄化，阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆症（ADOD）在日本正在上升。主要的危险因素包括空腹血糖过高、肥胖和吸烟。关西和关西地区的adhd患病率高于其他地区，ARIMA模型预测，到2030年，adhd病例将持续增加。有针对性的卫生保健政策和预防措施对于减轻负担至关重要。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Alzheimer's & Dementia 医学-临床神经学

CiteScore

14.50

自引率

5.00%

发文量

299

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Alzheimer's & Dementia is a peer-reviewed journal that aims to bridge knowledge gaps in dementia research by covering the entire spectrum, from basic science to clinical trials to social and behavioral investigations. It provides a platform for rapid communication of new findings and ideas, optimal translation of research into practical applications, increasing knowledge across diverse disciplines for early detection, diagnosis, and intervention, and identifying promising new research directions. In July 2008, Alzheimer's & Dementia was accepted for indexing by MEDLINE, recognizing its scientific merit and contribution to Alzheimer's research.