Steering the electric vehicle future: Asymmetric power dynamics, system logics, and tipping mechanisms in mobility transitions

Abstract

This article investigates global transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles (EVs), a transformation reshaping mobility systems worldwide. Despite the growing momentum of EV adoption, existing transition theories understate the role of power asymmetries, structural constraints, and cross-system interactions in shaping transition pathways. To address these gaps, we develop a novel conceptual framework that integrates the Technological Innovation Systems (TIS) and Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) approaches. Central to this framework are the concepts of system logics—the material and institutional conditions that shape regime permeability—and agency at sites of interaction, which captures stakeholder influence across systems. We conceptualize socio-technical change as a rotating spiral that progresses through dynamic feedback loops and tipping mechanisms, including political, technological, and behavioral shifts.

Empirically, we apply this framework to a comparative analysis of EV adoption in the United States, Germany, China, and Thailand. Rather than tracing uniform stages in each case, we show how distinct national contexts exemplify different phases of the global transition: from niche innovation and contested reconfiguration to state-led penetration and passive infiltration. Our findings reveal that transition trajectories are shaped by country-specific configurations of industrial maturity, policy coherence, cultural norms, and external pressures. The study offers two core contributions: a more power-sensitive and multi-system view of transition dynamics, and a typology of regime transformation pathways—active penetration and passive infiltration—that capture the diverse ways EVs challenge and reconfigure incumbent mobility systems. These insights advance transition theories and inform policymaking in both industrialized and emerging economies facing the imperatives of decarbonization and technological change.