Black market prices as inflation predictor: Evidence from China’s hyperinflation

IF 7.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2025.107805

Yezhou Sha , Xi Wu

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Extreme economic conditions provide insights into validating fundamental economic theories. In this study, we examine the relationship between several black market commodity price series and the inflation rate in China during a period of hyperinflation. Our findings reveal that black market commodity prices effectively predict inflation, aligning with the spot–future parity theorem. We also show that efforts to stabilize prices and unify fiscal and financial systems in China caused structural breaks in black market commodity prices.

查看原文本刊更多论文

黑市价格作为通胀预测指标：来自中国恶性通胀的证据

极端经济条件为验证基本经济理论提供了洞见。在本研究中，我们考察了恶性通货膨胀时期中国几种黑市商品价格序列与通货膨胀率之间的关系。我们的研究结果表明，黑市商品价格有效地预测通货膨胀，与现货-期货平价定理一致。我们还表明，稳定价格和统一财政和金融体系的努力导致了黑市商品价格的结构性断裂。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Finance Research Letters BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.10

自引率

14.40%

发文量

863

期刊介绍： Finance Research Letters welcomes submissions across all areas of finance, aiming for rapid publication of significant new findings. The journal particularly encourages papers that provide insight into the replicability of established results, examine the cross-national applicability of previous findings, challenge existing methodologies, or demonstrate methodological contingencies. Papers are invited in the following areas: Actuarial studies Alternative investments Asset Pricing Bankruptcy and liquidation Banks and other Depository Institutions Behavioral and experimental finance Bibliometric and Scientometric studies of finance Capital budgeting and corporate investment Capital markets and accounting Capital structure and payout policy Commodities Contagion, crises and interdependence Corporate governance Credit and fixed income markets and instruments Derivatives Emerging markets Energy Finance and Energy Markets Financial Econometrics Financial History Financial intermediation and money markets Financial markets and marketplaces Financial Mathematics and Econophysics Financial Regulation and Law Forecasting Frontier market studies International Finance Market efficiency, event studies Mergers, acquisitions and the market for corporate control Micro Finance Institutions Microstructure Non-bank Financial Institutions Personal Finance Portfolio choice and investing Real estate finance and investing Risk SME, Family and Entrepreneurial Finance