Risk management in belt and road petrochemical projects: An ITTO methodology approach

Abstract

This study proposes a structured risk management framework based on the Inputs, Tools, Techniques, and Outputs (ITTO) model, tailored for petrochemical projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The framework addresses the complex and evolving risks inherent in international EPC environments by integrating standardized risk processes across the project lifecycle—from planning to closure.

A case study of the X Petrochemical Project illustrates the application of this ITTO-based approach. The framework enabled the identification and mitigation of geopolitical and logistical risks. Notably, the use of Monte Carlo simulation and iterative reassessment helped avoid a projected three-week customs delay, maintaining schedule integrity and improving stakeholder coordination.

By embedding real-time data integration, cross-cultural adaptability, and structured planning, the ITTO framework offers a scalable and responsive solution for transnational risk management. The findings provide practical insights for aligning risk strategies with sustainability objectives and enhancing project outcomes in complex global infrastructure settings.