A system dynamics model of the investment capacity of China's power grid under the third regulatory cycle of transmission and distribution tariff reform

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI:10.1016/j.jup.2025.101968

Xiaomin Xu , Zhiyi Wang , Yingying Zhou , Haoxu Cui , Shipeng Zheng , Xiao Guan

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Under the third regulatory cycle of transmission and distribution tariff (T&D) reform, power grid companies' profit pattern and operation ideas have significantly changed their investment capacity. To accurately assess the investment capacity of companies, this study first reveals the impacts of the reforms on the electricity sales side profit pattern. Then, a system dynamics prediction model is constructed to analyze investment capacity based on these reforms. Finally, the trend of investment capacity is predicted with actual data for a company, and targeted management suggestions are presented based on the sensitivity analysis for power grid companies.

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输配电价改革第三次调控周期下中国电网投资能力的系统动力学模型

在输配电价改革的第三次监管周期下，电网公司的盈利模式和经营理念显著改变了其投资能力。为了准确评估企业的投资能力，本研究首先揭示了改革对售电侧利润模式的影响。在此基础上，构建了系统动力学预测模型，对改革后的投资能力进行了分析。最后，结合某公司的实际数据对投资能力趋势进行预测，并在对电网公司进行敏感性分析的基础上，提出有针对性的管理建议。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Utilities Policy ENERGY & FUELS-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

66 days

期刊介绍： Utilities Policy is deliberately international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral. Articles address utility trends and issues in both developed and developing economies. Authors and reviewers come from various disciplines, including economics, political science, sociology, law, finance, accounting, management, and engineering. Areas of focus include the utility and network industries providing essential electricity, natural gas, water and wastewater, solid waste, communications, broadband, postal, and public transportation services. Utilities Policy invites submissions that apply various quantitative and qualitative methods. Contributions are welcome from both established and emerging scholars as well as accomplished practitioners. Interdisciplinary, comparative, and applied works are encouraged. Submissions to the journal should have a clear focus on governance, performance, and/or analysis of public utilities with an aim toward informing the policymaking process and providing recommendations as appropriate. Relevant topics and issues include but are not limited to industry structures and ownership, market design and dynamics, economic development, resource planning, system modeling, accounting and finance, infrastructure investment, supply and demand efficiency, strategic management and productivity, network operations and integration, supply chains, adaptation and flexibility, service-quality standards, benchmarking and metrics, benefit-cost analysis, behavior and incentives, pricing and demand response, economic and environmental regulation, regulatory performance and impact, restructuring and deregulation, and policy institutions.