{"title":"Regime Shift in Arctic Ocean Sea-Ice Extent","authors":"Harry L. Stern","doi":"10.1029/2024GL114546","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>A regime shift is an abrupt, substantial, and persistent change in the state of a system. We show that a regime shift in the September Arctic sea-ice extent (SIE) occurred in 2007. Before 2007, September SIE was declining approximately linearly. In September 2007, SIE had its largest year-to-year drop in the entire 46-year satellite record (1979–2024). Since 2007, September SIE has fluctuated but exhibits no long-term trend. The regime shift in 2007 was caused by significant export and melt of older and thicker sea ice over the previous 2–3 years, as documented in other studies. We test alternatives to the traditional linear model of declining September SIE, and discuss possible explanations for the lack of a trend since 2007.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL114546","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geophysical Research Letters","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL114546","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
A regime shift is an abrupt, substantial, and persistent change in the state of a system. We show that a regime shift in the September Arctic sea-ice extent (SIE) occurred in 2007. Before 2007, September SIE was declining approximately linearly. In September 2007, SIE had its largest year-to-year drop in the entire 46-year satellite record (1979–2024). Since 2007, September SIE has fluctuated but exhibits no long-term trend. The regime shift in 2007 was caused by significant export and melt of older and thicker sea ice over the previous 2–3 years, as documented in other studies. We test alternatives to the traditional linear model of declining September SIE, and discuss possible explanations for the lack of a trend since 2007.
期刊介绍：
Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
