Automation, education, and population: Dynamic effects in an OLG growth and fertility model

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI:10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107002

Catarina Peralta , Pedro Mazeda Gil

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We address two main structural changes occurring in developed countries: the rise of automation and population ageing. Using an R&D-based growth model under an OLG framework, we consider education and fertility decisions, as well as automation in the production process, to explore the interplay between population ageing and automation. The results reveal dynamics that align with the US trends from 1970 to 2021. In particular, in response to increasing real wages, the model captures a decline in the fertility rate for low-skilled workers but an increase for high-skilled workers, consistent with observed data. We also analyze the model’s response to shocks related to automation and demographics (fertility vs. longevity), as well as policy instruments designed to reduce inequality.

查看原文本刊更多论文

自动化、教育和人口：OLG 增长与生育率模型的动态效应

我们将讨论发达国家发生的两大结构性变化：自动化程度的提高和人口老龄化。在OLG框架下，采用基于研发的增长模型，我们考虑了教育和生育决策，以及生产过程中的自动化，以探索人口老龄化与自动化之间的相互作用。结果揭示了与1970年至2021年美国趋势一致的动态。特别是，为了应对实际工资的增长，该模型捕捉到低技能工人的生育率下降，而高技能工人的生育率上升，这与观察到的数据一致。我们还分析了该模型对与自动化和人口统计（生育率与寿命）以及旨在减少不平等的政策工具相关的冲击的反应。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

9.10%

发文量

392

期刊介绍： The Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization is devoted to theoretical and empirical research concerning economic decision, organization and behavior and to economic change in all its aspects. Its specific purposes are to foster an improved understanding of how human cognitive, computational and informational characteristics influence the working of economic organizations and market economies and how an economy structural features lead to various types of micro and macro behavior, to changing patterns of development and to institutional evolution. Research with these purposes that explore the interrelations of economics with other disciplines such as biology, psychology, law, anthropology, sociology and mathematics is particularly welcome.