{"title":"Conformal e-prediction","authors":"Vladimir Vovk","doi":"10.1016/j.patcog.2025.111674","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper discusses a counterpart of conformal prediction for e-values, <em>conformal e-prediction</em>. Conformal e-prediction is conceptually simpler and had been developed in the 1990s as a precursor of conformal prediction. When conformal prediction emerged as result of replacing e-values by p-values, it seemed to have important advantages over conformal e-prediction without obvious disadvantages. This paper re-examines relations between conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction systematically from a modern perspective. Conformal e-prediction has advantages of its own, such as the ease of designing conditional conformal e-predictors and the guaranteed validity of cross-conformal e-predictors (whereas for cross-conformal predictors validity is only an empirical fact and can be broken with excessive randomization). Even where conformal prediction has clear advantages, conformal e-prediction can often emulate those advantages, more or less successfully.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49713,"journal":{"name":"Pattern Recognition","volume":"166 ","pages":"Article 111674"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Pattern Recognition","FirstCategoryId":"94","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031320325003346","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper discusses a counterpart of conformal prediction for e-values, conformal e-prediction. Conformal e-prediction is conceptually simpler and had been developed in the 1990s as a precursor of conformal prediction. When conformal prediction emerged as result of replacing e-values by p-values, it seemed to have important advantages over conformal e-prediction without obvious disadvantages. This paper re-examines relations between conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction systematically from a modern perspective. Conformal e-prediction has advantages of its own, such as the ease of designing conditional conformal e-predictors and the guaranteed validity of cross-conformal e-predictors (whereas for cross-conformal predictors validity is only an empirical fact and can be broken with excessive randomization). Even where conformal prediction has clear advantages, conformal e-prediction can often emulate those advantages, more or less successfully.
期刊介绍:
The field of Pattern Recognition is both mature and rapidly evolving, playing a crucial role in various related fields such as computer vision, image processing, text analysis, and neural networks. It closely intersects with machine learning and is being applied in emerging areas like biometrics, bioinformatics, multimedia data analysis, and data science. The journal Pattern Recognition, established half a century ago during the early days of computer science, has since grown significantly in scope and influence.