Deep dive into the global primary plastic trade over the past thirty-five years and its policy implications

Abstract

Since China’s import ban, there has been a stimulated global interest in the international trade of plastic wastes, but with a limited focus on the impact of such downstream events on the trade of primary plastics. Thus, this study focuses on analyzing the global trade of primary plastics from 1988 to 2022 to understand the effects of different events on the trade and offer policy implications. Specifically, we reconstruct relevant trade data from the UN Comtrade database using a rigorous method to handle data reporting issues in the database. The results show that the cumulative global trade of primary plastics reached 3,411 megatonnes over the past 35 years. The global trade boosted after 2017 as a result of China’s increasing import to mitigate the raw material shortages brought by its import ban of plastic wastes. A first negative growth of the global primary plastic trade in a decade showed up in 2022 due to China’s shrinking demand. This study also offers a detailed analysis about the current policy landscape, urgently calling for a well-designed policy framework aiming at sustainability throughout the entire plastic life cycle.