Data-driven Play Fairway Analysis applied to Los Humeros geothermal field, Mexico

Abstract

A data-driven geothermal Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) of the Los Humeros geothermal field in Puebla, Mexico was conducted using published geoscientific data. The available datasets considered as positive indicators or proxies (evidence layers) for the necessary elements in the formation of hydrothermal geothermal systems (e.g., permeability, heat) were weighted and integrated. The datasets used as proxies were faults, favorable structural settings, CO₂ efflux, earthquakes, surficial hydrothermal manifestations and soil temperatures. The proxies were combined using weights-of-evidence statistics to obtain models for permeability and heat. Afterwards, the permeability and heat models were integrated through a product operation to build an overall geothermal favorability model. The geothermal favorability model highlights four areas with elevated geothermal favorability located to the NNE, NNW, NE, and south of the village of Los Humeros. The areas of higher favorability represent zones where geothermal fluids are more likely to exist underground. These four areas could represent targets for further exploration (e.g., exploration wells), particularly area D near the village of Los Humeros. Area D is the largest, it is underexploited (compared with areas A, B and C) and presents the strongest CO₂ and soil temperatures anomalies. Finally, it is proposed that favorable structural settings exercise a primary control on the location of permeable zones with geothermal fluids.