Economic and health implications of early COVID-19 lockdown exits: Evidence from a difference-in-differences analysis

IF 4.9 2区医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Social Science & Medicine Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI:10.1016/j.socscimed.2025.117953

Deivis Nicolas Guzman-Tordecilla PhDc, Antonio J. Trujillo Ph.D. (Professor)

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The premature lifting of lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic created a trade-off between economic recovery and increased disease transmission, yet its true impact remains poorly understood. This study investigates the causal effect of ending lockdown policies on COVID-19 cases and deaths in Colombia, using sales tax holidays (TH) as a natural experiment. We analyze 1,105,215 observations from March 6, 2020, to December 31, 2021, using data from the Colombian Ministry of Health and Google Mobility. Applying a Difference-in-Differences approach, we find that, prior to vaccination, THs increased daily COVID-19 cases and deaths by 14 % and 4 % points, respectively, leading to net economic losses. After vaccines became available, economic gains from THs exceeded health costs. These findings underscore the trade-offs of ending lockdowns prematurely, which can have economic consequences. Policymakers can use these insights to weigh the benefits of relaxing lockdowns against health risks, emphasizing the role of vaccination and preparedness in future pandemics.

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在 COVID-19 大流行期间，过早解除封锁造成了经济复苏与疾病传播增加之间的权衡，但其真正影响仍鲜为人知。本研究以销售税假期（TH）为自然实验，调查了结束封锁政策对哥伦比亚 COVID-19 病例和死亡人数的因果影响。我们利用哥伦比亚卫生部和谷歌移动公司提供的数据，分析了 2020 年 3 月 6 日至 2021 年 12 月 31 日期间的 1,105,215 个观测值。应用差分法，我们发现在接种疫苗之前，THs 使 COVID-19 的每日病例和死亡人数分别增加了 14% 和 4%，导致了净经济损失。疫苗上市后，THs 带来的经济收益超过了健康成本。这些发现强调了过早结束封锁的利弊得失，这可能会产生经济后果。政策制定者可以利用这些见解来权衡放松封锁的益处和健康风险，强调疫苗接种和准备工作在未来流行病中的作用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Social Science & Medicine PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-

CiteScore

9.10

自引率

5.60%

发文量

762

审稿时长

38 days

期刊介绍： Social Science & Medicine provides an international and interdisciplinary forum for the dissemination of social science research on health. We publish original research articles (both empirical and theoretical), reviews, position papers and commentaries on health issues, to inform current research, policy and practice in all areas of common interest to social scientists, health practitioners, and policy makers. The journal publishes material relevant to any aspect of health from a wide range of social science disciplines (anthropology, economics, epidemiology, geography, policy, psychology, and sociology), and material relevant to the social sciences from any of the professions concerned with physical and mental health, health care, clinical practice, and health policy and organization. We encourage material which is of general interest to an international readership.