Risky decline? Exploring the determinants of pupil's proficiency development over time

IF 6.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Socio-economic Planning Sciences Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI:10.1016/j.seps.2025.102207

Melisa L. Diaz Lema , Chiara Masci , Mara Soncin , Tommaso Agasisti

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The early identification of at-risk students and of factors influencing proficiency development are crucial in education policy. This study investigates how students' fluctuations in academic performance during primary school impact the probability of being at-risk in Mathematics and Reading by the end of lower secondary school. Leveraging longitudinal data from 278,765 students in Italy, this study employs a multilevel multinomial model with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to explore personal, class, and school-related factors steering shifts between proficiency and non-proficiency. Findings highlight the importance of these transitions in predicting at-risk students at grade 8, emphasizing the role of peers' academic achievements and the variation across schools in shaping proficiency development.

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来源期刊

Socio-economic Planning Sciences OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE-

CiteScore

9.40

自引率

13.10%

发文量

294

审稿时长

58 days

期刊介绍： Studies directed toward the more effective utilization of existing resources, e.g. mathematical programming models of health care delivery systems with relevance to more effective program design; systems analysis of fire outbreaks and its relevance to the location of fire stations; statistical analysis of the efficiency of a developing country economy or industry. Studies relating to the interaction of various segments of society and technology, e.g. the effects of government health policies on the utilization and design of hospital facilities; the relationship between housing density and the demands on public transportation or other service facilities: patterns and implications of urban development and air or water pollution. Studies devoted to the anticipations of and response to future needs for social, health and other human services, e.g. the relationship between industrial growth and the development of educational resources in affected areas; investigation of future demands for material and child health resources in a developing country; design of effective recycling in an urban setting.