Floods and cause-specific mortality in the United States applying a triply robust approach

IF 15.7 1区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
Lingzhi Chu, Joshua L. Warren, Erica S. Spatz, Sarah Lowe, Yuan Lu, Xiaomei Ma, Joseph S. Ross, Harlan M. Krumholz, Kai Chen
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Abstract

The health impact of floods has not been well characterized. This study evaluated long-term associations between cause-specific mortality rates and county-level monthly flood days (excluding coastal floods caused by tropical storms) in the post-flood year in the contiguous U.S., using a triply robust approach incorporating propensity score, counterfactual estimation, and confounder adjustment. Death records came from the CDC National Center for Health Statistics (2001-2020) and floods came from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2000-2020). We found that one flood day was associated with 8.3 (95% CI: 2.5 to 14.1) excess all-cause deaths per 10 million individuals, 3.1 due to myocardial infarction, 2.4 due to respiratory diseases, and 5.9 due to external causes. From 2001 to 2020, 22,376 (95% CI: 6,758 to 37,993) all-cause deaths were attributable to floods. Our findings highlight the long-term health risks after floods, and a need for measures to reduce these risks.

Abstract Image

洪水和特定原因的死亡率在美国应用三重稳健的方法
洪水对健康的影响尚未得到很好的描述。本研究评估了美国相邻地区洪水后年份的特定原因死亡率与县级月洪水日数(不包括热带风暴引起的沿海洪水)之间的长期关系,采用了三重稳健方法,包括倾向评分、反事实估计和混杂调整。死亡记录来自疾病预防控制中心国家卫生统计中心(2001-2020年),洪水来自NOAA风暴事件数据库(2000-2020年)。我们发现,每1000万人中有8.3人(95% CI: 2.5 - 14.1)死于洪水,3.1人死于心肌梗死,2.4人死于呼吸系统疾病,5.9人死于外因。从2001年到2020年,有22,376例(95%置信区间:6,758至37,993)全因死亡可归因于洪水。我们的研究结果强调了洪水后的长期健康风险,以及采取措施降低这些风险的必要性。
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来源期刊
Nature Communications
Nature Communications Biological Science Disciplines-
CiteScore
24.90
自引率
2.40%
发文量
6928
审稿时长
3.7 months
期刊介绍: Nature Communications, an open-access journal, publishes high-quality research spanning all areas of the natural sciences. Papers featured in the journal showcase significant advances relevant to specialists in each respective field. With a 2-year impact factor of 16.6 (2022) and a median time of 8 days from submission to the first editorial decision, Nature Communications is committed to rapid dissemination of research findings. As a multidisciplinary journal, it welcomes contributions from biological, health, physical, chemical, Earth, social, mathematical, applied, and engineering sciences, aiming to highlight important breakthroughs within each domain.
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