The China Factor in US-Saudi Talks for a Defense Pact

Abstract

Throughout its tenure, the Biden administration negotiated a defense pact with Saudi Arabia. Although the deal ran into obstacles, including Riyadh's insistence that Israel promise to allow a pathway toward a Palestinian state, the Trump administration is reportedly interested in continuing the talks. This article contends that one of the main reasons behind the US push for this extraordinary pact is to prevent China from increasing its influence in Saudi Arabia. Aware of the kingdom's reliance on external security guarantees and Beijing's traditional avoidance of military alliances, the Biden team viewed a formal defense cooperation agreement as the most effective way to stem the growing Chinese influence in the region. The analysis examines Riyadh's relationships with Washington and Beijing, then outlines the main features of the reported US-Saudi proposal, including defense cooperation, assistance on a civilian nuclear program, advanced technologies, and normalization between the kingdom and Israel. It then shows how these terms could undermine China's influence with Saudi Arabia. Even in limited form, a Trump deal with Riyadh could reduce Beijing's leverage in the region.