Place-based policy and spillovers in the housing market

Abstract

In response to soaring housing prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, some governments imposed bans on investor purchases in hot housing markets, raising concerns that such place-based regulations would shift investment demand to adjacent, non-regulated areas. This study examines a ban on rental-purpose purchases in South Korea and finds that the regulation leads to price declines in both regulated and adjacent areas, demonstrating a price spillover effect: an 8.9 % decrease in the regulated area and a 5.2 % decrease in adjacent areas. Moreover, there is no statistical evidence of demand displacement or increased transaction volumes in adjacent areas, while the investor ban is associated with a 25.6 % decline in transaction volumes within the regulated zone. These findings suggest that price spillover effects outweigh displacement effects in heated housing markets, indicating that place-based policies can effectively curb real estate price increases despite concerns about investment demand displacement.