Understanding the Demand-Side of an Illegal Market: A Case Study of the Prohibition of Menthol Cigarettes

IF 2.4 3区医学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Health economics Pub Date : 2025-02-19 DOI:10.1002/hec.4937

Don Kenkel, Alan Mathios, Grace Phillips, Revathy Suryanarayana, Hua Wang, Sen Zeng

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Economic research has long focused on illegal markets and the consequences of prohibitions. We provide a case study of the proposed prohibition of menthol cigarettes, which are smoked by almost 19 million people in the U.S. Illegal markets for menthol cigarettes could not only blunt the prohibition's intended consequence to reduce smoking but could also lead to unintended consequences. We use data from a discrete choice experiment. Our mixed logit model predicts a substantial potential consumer demand for illegal menthol cigarettes, especially if menthol e-cigarettes are also illegal.

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了解非法市场的需求方：薄荷香烟禁令案例研究》。

长期以来，经济研究一直关注非法市场和禁令的后果。我们提供了一个关于拟议禁止薄荷香烟的案例研究，在美国有近1900万人吸烟薄荷香烟，非法薄荷香烟市场不仅会削弱禁令的预期结果，减少吸烟，而且还可能导致意想不到的后果。我们使用离散选择实验的数据。我们的混合logit模型预测了非法薄荷香烟的巨大潜在消费者需求，特别是如果薄荷电子烟也是非法的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Health economics 医学-卫生保健

CiteScore

3.60

自引率

4.80%

发文量

177

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： This Journal publishes articles on all aspects of health economics: theoretical contributions, empirical studies and analyses of health policy from the economic perspective. Its scope includes the determinants of health and its definition and valuation, as well as the demand for and supply of health care; planning and market mechanisms; micro-economic evaluation of individual procedures and treatments; and evaluation of the performance of health care systems. Contributions should typically be original and innovative. As a rule, the Journal does not include routine applications of cost-effectiveness analysis, discrete choice experiments and costing analyses. Editorials are regular features, these should be concise and topical. Occasionally commissioned reviews are published and special issues bring together contributions on a single topic. Health Economics Letters facilitate rapid exchange of views on topical issues. Contributions related to problems in both developed and developing countries are welcome.