Pandemic lockdowns and trust in local government in China

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented a distinctive opportunity to reassess trust in government by evaluating its performance amidst a critical crisis. This paper employs a generalized difference-in-differences method to probe the causal effects of prolonged lockdown durations on public trust in local governments in China. Drawing on panel data of 44,861 observations from the 2018 and 2020 survey waves, the findings reveal a pervasive decline in government trust caused by extended lockdown durations in China. Specifically, an additional 40 days of lockdown resulted in an average 7.77 % decrease in government trust, with the largest declines seen among individuals with lower education, those born before 1970, those with health issues, and those with rural residence registration. This erosion of trust primarily stemmed from the lockdowns’ detrimental impacts on economic production, financial security, and the conveniences of daily life.