The carbon emission reduction roadmap and policy of inland river ships in the yangtze river basin

Abstract

This study investigates a carbon reduction roadmap for inland waterway ships in China's Yangtze River Basin to support carbon neutrality objectives in the transportation sector. A scenario analysis was employed to develop a carbon emission prediction model, evaluating existing policies and technologies measures for emission mitigation. Three distinct scenarios were examined: Business-as-Usual (BAU), 2°C-aligned, and 1.5°C-aligned pathways. The model projects carbon emission intensity and annual emissions from 2025 to 2060, revealing that under the 1.5°C-aligned scenario, the Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI) could decline to 0.491 $g\bullet {\text{ton}}^{-1}\bullet {\text{km}}^{-1}$ by 2060, representing a 92.35% reduction from 2022 levels. Sectoral carbon emissions are anticipated to peak by 2030, subsequently decreasing by 39.4% from 2025 levels by 2060. The results indicate that achieving zero carbon emissions in the Yangtze River inland waterway transportation solely through energy transformation is highly challenging.