Unified merger list in the container shipping industry from 1966 to 2022: A structural estimation of M&A matching

IF 6.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS
Suguru Otani , Takuma Matsuda
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

We construct a novel unified merger list in the global container shipping industry between 1966 (the beginning of the industry) and 2022. Combining the list with proprietary data, we construct a structural matching model to describe the historical transition of the importance of a firm’s age, size, and geographical proximity on merger decisions. We find that, as a positive factor, a firm’s size is more important than a firm’s age by 9.858 times as a merger incentive between 1991 and 2005. However, between 2006 and 2022, as a negative factor, a firm’s size is more important than a firm’s age by 2.013 times, that is, a firm’s size works as a disincentive. We also find that the distance between buyer and seller firms works as a disincentive for the whole period, but the importance has dwindled to economic insignificance in recent years. In counterfactual simulations, we observe that the prohibition of mergers between firms in the same country would affect the merger configuration of not only the firms involved in prohibited mergers but also those involved in permitted mergers. Finally, we present interview-based evidence of the consistency between our merger lists, estimations, and counterfactual simulations with the industry experts’ historical experiences.
1966 - 2022年集装箱航运业统一并购清单:并购匹配的结构性估计
我们构建了一个从1966年(行业开始)到2022年全球集装箱航运业的新的统一合并列表。将该列表与专有数据相结合,我们构建了一个结构匹配模型,以描述公司的年龄、规模和地理位置对合并决策的重要性的历史转变。研究发现,在1991 - 2005年间,作为并购激励的正向因素,企业规模的重要性是企业年龄的9.858倍。然而,在2006年至2022年间,企业规模作为一个负向因素比企业年龄重要2.013倍,即企业规模起到了抑制作用。我们还发现,买卖双方公司之间的距离在整个时期都是一种抑制因素,但近年来其重要性已经下降到经济上的不重要程度。在反事实模拟中,我们观察到同一国家的企业间禁止合并不仅会影响被禁止合并的企业的合并配置,也会影响被允许合并的企业的合并配置。最后,我们提出了基于访谈的证据,证明我们的合并清单、估计和反事实模拟与行业专家的历史经验之间的一致性。
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来源期刊
Transport Policy
Transport Policy Multiple-
CiteScore
12.10
自引率
10.30%
发文量
282
期刊介绍: Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.
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