The impact of natural disasters on agricultural credit risk: A theoretical model and empirical test

IF 6.7 1区工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS

Computers & Industrial Engineering Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI:10.1016/j.cie.2024.110846

Qianting Ma , Weizhong Wang , Ruiqi Leng , Muhammet Deveci , Renjia Liu , Dursun Delen

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Abstract

Natural disasters exert a profound influence on agricultural production and the stable development of rural financial systems. This paper utilizes a multi-agent modeling approach to construct a theoretical framework for understanding the transmission of agricultural credit risk in the context of natural disasters, and empirically examines the underlying mechanisms. The findings reveal several key insights. First, natural disasters significantly escalate credit risk in the agricultural sector. Second, the maturity of agricultural insurance infrastructure plays a critical role in mitigating the impact of natural disasters on agricultural credit risk. Finally, a well-developed agricultural insurance system is essential for mitigating the adverse effects of natural disasters on agricultural credit risk. These findings suggest that accelerating the development of agricultural insurance, particularly in regions prone to natural disasters, could serve as an effective strategy for managing and containing agricultural credit risk.

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来源期刊

Computers & Industrial Engineering 工程技术-工程：工业

CiteScore

12.70

自引率

12.70%

发文量

794

审稿时长

10.6 months

期刊介绍： Computers & Industrial Engineering (CAIE) is dedicated to researchers, educators, and practitioners in industrial engineering and related fields. Pioneering the integration of computers in research, education, and practice, industrial engineering has evolved to make computers and electronic communication integral to its domain. CAIE publishes original contributions focusing on the development of novel computerized methodologies to address industrial engineering problems. It also highlights the applications of these methodologies to issues within the broader industrial engineering and associated communities. The journal actively encourages submissions that push the boundaries of fundamental theories and concepts in industrial engineering techniques.