Research on equity analysis and forecasting of nursing human resource allocation in Jiangxi Province, China

IF 2.9 3区 医学 Q1 NURSING
Yunyu Du , Zhiqin Xie , Zhen Yang , Wanyin Xiong , Li Zhou , Min Zhang , Suhua Zeng , Min Wang
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Abstract

Objectives

This study aimed to assess the equity of nursing human resource allocation in Jiangxi Province, China, and forecast future trends in the next five years.

Methods

We used the related data from the China Statistical Yearbook, China Health Statistics Yearbook, and Jiangxi Statistical Yearbook (2003–2022). The equity of nursing human resource allocation was evaluated using Lorenz curves, Gini coefficients, and Theil index, from the perspective of population and geographical area. Demands for nursing human resource in Jiangxi Province from 2023 to 2027 were forecasted using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Grey (1,1) models.

Results

From 2003 to 2022, all the key nursing human resource indicators continuously increased; the number of registered nurses in Jiangxi Province increased by 109,786, with an average annual growth rate of 7.80%. Registered nurses per 1,000 population rose by 2.21, while nurses per square kilometer increased by 0.66. Jiangxi Province has surpassed the national level in several nursing resource indicators, including registered nurses as a percentage of health technicians, registered nurses per square kilometer, and doctor-to-nurse ratio. Within the province, all indicators in cities are higher than those in county-level regions. Among the cities in Jiangxi Province, Ganzhou City had the highest number of registered nurses, Xinyu City led in the doctor-to-nurse ratio, and Nanchang City had the highest bed-to-nurse ratio. In 2022, the Gini coefficients for registered nurses in Jiangxi Province were 0.09 by population and 0.34 by geographical area, reflecting the allocation of registered nurses in Jiangxi Province is highly equitable by population but relatively equitable by geographical area. Forecasting results suggested that the number of registered nurses in Jiangxi Province will reach 170,100 by 2027, indicating continued growth and improvement in nursing resource allocation.

Conclusions

Over the past two decades, the human nursing resources in Jiangxi Province have grown substantially. The absolute fairness of nurse human resources allocation by population highlights significant progress, although regional disparities persist. These findings provide a foundation for optimizing future nursing resource allocation to ensure equitable access to healthcare services.
江西省护理人力资源配置公平性分析与预测研究
目的评价江西省护理人力资源配置公平性,预测未来5年护理人力资源配置公平性的变化趋势。方法采用《中国统计年鉴》、《中国卫生统计年鉴》和《江西统计年鉴(2003-2022)》的相关数据。采用Lorenz曲线、基尼系数和Theil指数,从人口和地理区域的角度评价护理人力资源配置的公平性。采用自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)和灰色(1,1)模型对江西省2023 - 2027年护理人力资源需求进行预测。结果2003 - 2022年,护理人力资源各项重点指标持续上升;江西省注册护士人数增加109786人,年均增长率为7.80%。每千人口注册护士人数增加2.21人,每平方公里注册护士人数增加0.66人。江西省注册护士占卫生技术人员的比例、每平方公里注册护士数、医护比等多项护理资源指标均超过全国水平。在全省范围内,城市的各项指标均高于县级地区。在江西省各城市中,赣州市注册护士人数最多,新余市医生护士比最高,南昌市床位护士比最高。2022年,江西省注册护士的基尼系数按人口计算为0.09,按地理区域计算为0.34,反映了江西省注册护士分配在人口上高度公平,而在地理区域上相对公平。预测结果显示,到2027年,江西省注册护士人数将达到17.01万人,表明护理资源配置将持续增长和改善。结论近二十年来,江西省人力护理资源大幅增长。按人口分配护士人力资源的绝对公平突出了重大进展,尽管区域差异仍然存在。这些发现为优化未来护理资源分配以确保公平获得医疗保健服务提供了基础。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.10
自引率
2.60%
发文量
408
审稿时长
25 days
期刊介绍: This journal aims to promote excellence in nursing and health care through the dissemination of the latest, evidence-based, peer-reviewed clinical information and original research, providing an international platform for exchanging knowledge, research findings and nursing practice experience. This journal covers a wide range of nursing topics such as advanced nursing practice, bio-psychosocial issues related to health, cultural perspectives, lifestyle change as a component of health promotion, chronic disease, including end-of-life care, family care giving. IJNSS publishes four issues per year in Jan/Apr/Jul/Oct. IJNSS intended readership includes practicing nurses in all spheres and at all levels who are committed to advancing practice and professional development on the basis of new knowledge and evidence; managers and senior members of the nursing; nurse educators and nursing students etc. IJNSS seeks to enrich insight into clinical need and the implications for nursing intervention and models of service delivery. Contributions are welcomed from other health professions on issues that have a direct impact on nursing practice.
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