Exploring the connection between COVID19, the energy crisis and PM2.5 emissions from residential heating

Abstract

Geopolitical events have shown to threaten European energy security in 2022. In Norway, accustomed to low energy prices, the southern part saw 4 times higher electricity prices in 2022 than long term average, whereas in the north, energy prices remained stable. This offers an opportunity to examine the effect of price on household energy consumption and PM_2.5 emissions from the residential sector. In the south, electricity consumption went down by 10% while in the north it remained unchanged relative to expected values. While the documented correlation between increased electricity prices and reduced consumption is well-established, our study uniquely captures a substantial shift towards wood as an alternative energy source. In the south, wood for heating increased by approximately 40%, effectively replacing half of the electricity saved. This increase happened despite prices being curbed by strong government subsidies on electricity. Faced with higher energy costs in Europe, we simulate a scenario where consumers across Europe look for affordable energy. With gas and electricity prices predicted to remain well above long-term averages until 2030, biomass will be an attractive option. Our study shows how a shift can endanger Europe's Zero-Pollution strategy, and the need for initiatives targeting the reduction of residential biomass heating.