Market mechanisms and their role in sustainable food security: Adapting to climate change in arid regions

IF 3.3 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures Pub Date : 2024-12-14 DOI:10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100412

Samira Shayanmehr , Samuel Asumadu-Sarkodie , Shida Rastegari Henneberry , Mahmoud Sabouhi Sabouni , Hosein Mohammadi , Riza Radmehr , Elvis Kwame Ofori , Naser Shahnoushi Foroushani

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Climate change is likely to worsen Iran's food security system if no domestic adaptation or mitigation options are implemented. The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of market mechanisms on food security in Iran under climate change. To achieve this, we develop an integrated approach using Statistical Down-Scaling Model (SDSM), Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), and spatial equilibrium multi-regional model (SEM). This approach is applied to the agro-ecological zones of Iran for the year 2030. The results indicate that climate change will threaten food availability in arid regions. However, the implementation of market mechanisms can help mitigate these effects, leading to an increase in social welfare by $580.94 and $578.00 million under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Therefore, policies that support market mechanisms and promote regional and international trade are recommended to ensure food security.

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市场机制及其在可持续粮食安全中的作用：干旱地区适应气候变化

如果不实施国内适应或减缓方案，气候变化可能会使伊朗的粮食安全体系恶化。本研究的主要目的是研究气候变化下市场机制对伊朗粮食安全的影响。为了实现这一目标，我们开发了一种综合方法，使用统计降尺度模型（SDSM），正数学规划（PMP）和空间平衡多区域模型（SEM）。该方法适用于伊朗2030年的农业生态区。结果表明，气候变化将威胁干旱地区的粮食供应。然而，市场机制的实施可以帮助缓解这些影响，在代表性集中路径（RCP） 4.5和RCP 8.5下，分别导致社会福利增加5800.94亿美元和5.78亿美元。因此，建议采取支持市场机制和促进区域和国际贸易的政策，以确保粮食安全。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Sustainable Futures Social Sciences-Sociology and Political Science

CiteScore

9.30

自引率

1.80%

发文量

审稿时长

71 days

期刊介绍： Sustainable Futures: is a journal focused on the intersection of sustainability, environment and technology from various disciplines in social sciences, and their larger implications for corporation, government, education institutions, regions and society both at present and in the future. It provides an advanced platform for studies related to sustainability and sustainable development in society, economics, environment, and culture. The scope of the journal is broad and encourages interdisciplinary research, as well as welcoming theoretical and practical research from all methodological approaches.