Simulating the uptake of electric motorized two-wheelers in Italy. An agent-based model parametrized with a discrete choice experiment

Abstract

Electric motorized two-wheelers (e-M2Ws) have the potential to reduce noise and air quality in urban environments. The paper develops an agent-based model, parametrized with a discrete choice experiment, to forecast e-M2Ws’ uptake in Italy. The application considers two market segments: mopeds and (seated) scooters. A scenario analysis is performed assessing the e-M2Ws prospects in different technological and policy scenarios. We find that electric mopeds enjoy a higher consumers’ acceptance than electric scooters. Our model predicts that they might play a relevant role in most scenarios, achieving in 2030 a market share ranging between 21.1 % and 44.2 %. On the contrary, electric scooters have much poorer prospects, achieving in 2030 a maximum of 5.5 % market share.